**Background:** Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is a devastating complication of liver cirrhosis, with overt HE (OHE) associated with poor prognosis and impaired quality of life. Identifying patients at high risk for a first OHE episode could justify primary prophylaxis, but evidence on prediction tools and preventive therapies is heterogeneous. This narrative review summarizes available evidence on prediction and prevention of a first OHE episode.
**Methods:** The authors conducted a narrative review of the literature covering cognitive tests, blood-based biomarkers, composite scores, sarcopenia, spontaneous portosystemic shunts (SPSS), gut microbiome, genetics, and pharmacological interventions for primary prophylaxis of OHE. Key studies are described with exact numbers.
**Key Results:**
- **Cognitive tests:** Patients with pathological PHES results had 3.9-fold (German study, n=191) and 2.1-fold (US study, n=170) increased risk of first OHE. The Stroop EncephalApp, Animal Naming Test (ANT), and critical flicker frequency (CFF) also show predictive value, though cutoffs vary.
- **Blood-based biomarkers:** Ammonia levels >1.5× upper limit of normal correlated with increased OHE risk. IL-6 >6 pg/mL identified patients with first OHE within 1 year with >90% sensitivity (single-center study, no external validation).
- **Composite scores:** The BABS score stratifies patients into 3 risk groups (score ≤0: 6% annual OHE risk; score ≥1: 25% annual OHE risk). The MASQ-HE score had an AUROC of 0.82 for OHE at 12 months and 0.92 for HE-associated hospitalization.
- **Sarcopenia:** Affects up to 37.5% of cirrhosis patients (meta-analysis). Associated with MHE and OHE development in a study of 64 patients, but no study has excluded prior OHE.
- **SPSS:** Total cross-sectional SPSS area >83 mm² was associated with higher OHE frequency (33% vs. 47%, p<0.05) in an international multicentric study.
- **Oral glutamine challenge:** In 198 patients without prior OHE, cumulative 12-month OHE incidence was 4.7% (low-risk), 9.9% (intermediate), and 21.9% (high-risk).
- **Genetics:** A risk score combining 4 SNPs and the phosphate-activated glutaminase microsatellite yielded a C-index of 0.83 (internal) and 0.74 (external validation).
- **Primary prophylaxis:** Only two studies had first OHE as primary endpoint. Lactulose (n=120, open-label): OHE incidence 11% vs. 28% (p=0.02, NNT=4.6). Probiotic VSL#3 (n=160, open-label): OHE incidence 8.8% vs. 20.3% (p<0.05, NNT for MHE patients=4.2, for non-MHE=12.8). Both studies were single-center, open-label, with heterogeneous cohorts.
- **Rifaximin:** No study primarily designed for first OHE prevention. A subgroup analysis of a Chinese study suggested lower OHE frequency with low-dose rifaximin. An ongoing multicenter RCT (NCT05071716, n=466, expected completion January 2025) is investigating rifaximin SSD vs. placebo.
- **LOLA:** One study found fewer OHE episodes with LOLA vs. placebo (5% vs. 37.9%, p=0.016) as a secondary endpoint, but the primary endpoint (MHE reversal) was not met.
- **TIPS:** Rifaximin reduced post-TIPS OHE risk by 50% in a double-blind RCT. In a subgroup without prior OHE, the reduction was not significant (35% vs. 51%, p=0.070).
- **Variceal bleeding:** Lactulose is recommended to prevent OHE after variceal bleeding, supported by meta-analyses, though without survival benefit.
**Clinical Implications:** Current EASL guidelines recommend treatment of covert HE with nonabsorbable disaccharides, but a general recommendation for primary prophylaxis of a first OHE episode cannot be made. The available evidence is limited to two open-label, single-center studies with heterogeneous populations. Future research should focus on identifying high-risk populations using validated prediction tools and conducting adequately powered, double-blind, randomized controlled trials of pharmacological interventions.