Scientific Reports · 6 authors, 5 centres
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This study used a validated algorithm on Swedish national register data from 1998 to 2019 to analyze hip fracture trends. It found a significant decline in age-standardized hip fractures, which is projected to continue despite population aging.
This retrospective cohort study analyzed nationwide Swedish hospital data from 1998 to 2019 to determine hip fracture incidence trends and future projections. The authors used a validated algorithm to identify 335,399 incident hip fractures, avoiding the overestimation seen in naive diagnosis counting. The central result was a 29.2% reduction in age-standardized hip fractures in women and a 29.3% reduction in men over the 22-year period. A key secondary finding was that within a decade after a hip fracture, 80% of patients had died and 11% had a new fracture. Projections based on a continued incidence decline suggest hip fractures could fall to 12,000 per year by 2050, even as the population aged 80+ doubles. Limitations include the observational design and the inherent uncertainty of long-term projections. The findings suggest future hip fracture burden in Sweden and similar countries may be lower than previous estimates.
