BMC Medicine · 11 authors, 6 centres
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In a matched case–control study nested within the West Sweden Asthma Study, ever use of hormonal contraceptives was associated with increased new-onset asthma in Frequentist analysis (OR 2.13), though the authors attribute this to selection bias and suggest a possible protective effect. Menopausal hormone therapy showed a non-significant association with increased asthma risk (Bayesian probability OR>1: 90.6%).
The analysis included 114 cases of new-onset asthma and 717 matched controls. Data were analyzed using Frequentist and Bayesian conditional logistic regression models. In Frequentist analysis, ever use of hormonal contraceptives was associated with increased odds of new-onset asthma (OR 2.13, 95% CI 1.03–4.38), with the association strengthening at older baseline ages. Ever use of MHT among menopausal women was non-significantly associated with new-onset asthma (OR 1.17, 95% CI 0.49–2.82). Bayesian analysis yielded attenuated estimates: OR 1.11 (95% PI 0.79–1.55) for hormonal contraceptives and OR 1.18 (95% PI 0.92–1.52) for MHT, with 72.3% and 90.6% probability of OR greater than one, respectively. Limitations include retrospective exposure ascertainment, potential recall bias, and inability to assess subtypes, doses, or routes of administration.
