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other·pediatrics, epidemiology, public health, infectious disease, immunology·PMC10407391

Infant mortality rates and pneumococcal vaccines: a time-series trend analysis in 194 countries, 1950–2020

BMJ Global Health · 4 authors, 3 centres

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TL;DR

The central result is that the introduction of PCVs into national immunisation programmes did not produce a major or statistically detectable change in the ongoing downward trend of IMRs.

Full summary

159 CHARS

ARIMA forecasting models for the USA, Canada, and Australia showed that observed post-introduction IMRs were not significantly different from projected trends.

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other

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pediatrics

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AI pipeline

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ORIGINAL PAPER

PMC10407391

Infant mortality rates and pneumococcal vaccines: a time-series trend analysis in 194 countries, 1950–2020

BMJ Global Health

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ABSTRACT

Abstract Pneumonia due to Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococcus) is a major cause of mortality in infants (children under 1 year of age), and pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs), delivered during the first year of life, are available since the year 2000. Given those two premises, the conclusion follows logically that favourable impact reported for PCVs in preventing pneumococcal disease should be reflected in the infant mortality rates (IMRs) from all causes. Using publicly available datasets, country-level IMR estimates from UNICEF and PCV introduction status from WHO, country-specific time series analysed the temporal relationship between annual IMRs and the introduction of PCVs, providing a unique context into the long-term secular trends of IMRs in countries that included and countries that did not include PCVs in their national immunisation programmes. PCV status was available for 194 countries during the period 1950–2020: 150 (77.3%) of these countries achieved nationwide PCV coverage at some point after the year 2000, 13 (6.7%) achieved only partial or temporary PCV coverage, and 31 (15.9%) never introduced PCVs to their population. One hundred and thirty-nine (92.7%) of countries that reported a decreasing (negative) trend in IMR, also reported a strong correlation with decreasing maternal mortality rates (MMRs), suggesting an improvement in overall child/mother healthcare. Conversely, all but one of the countries that never introduced PCVs in their national immunisation programme also reported a decreasing trend in IMR that strongly correlates with MMRs. IMRs have been decreasing for decades all over the world, but this latest decrease may not be related to PCVs. Keywords: Child health, Immunisation, Pneumococcal disease, Vaccines

CITATION EXPORT

Carlos A Sanchez, Oriana Rivera-Lozada, Michelle Lozada-Urbano et al.. Infant mortality rates and pneumococcal vaccines: a time-series trend analysis in 194 countries, 1950–2020. BMJ Global Health. (2023). https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2023-012752

AUTHORS

4 · 3 CENTRES

Carlos A Sanchez, Oriana Rivera-Lozada, Michelle Lozada-Urbano, Pablo Best

1 Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas, Lima, Peru
2 Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru
3 Universidad Norbert Wiener, Lima, Peru