International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health · 9 authors, 5 centres
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This retrospective study analyzed death certificate data to compare mortality rates for five causes among older adults in prefectures affected by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake versus unaffected prefectures. It found significant one-year increases in deaths from stroke, pneumonia, and senility in Miyagi Prefecture in 2011, but no strong, sustained associations overall.
This retrospective study used death certificates from 2006 to 2015 (N=7,383,253) to examine the 3-year impact of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake on specific mortality causes among older adults in Fukushima, Miyagi, and Iwate prefectures compared to 44 unaffected prefectures. Mortality rates were analyzed using a linear mixed model. The central result was a significant increase in the risk of death from stroke, pneumonia, and senility in Miyagi Prefecture only in 2011, with risk ratios of 1.13, 1.17, and 1.28, respectively. No significant increases were observed for other affected prefectures or other causes, and decreases were noted for some causes in 2013. The study concludes there was no strong association between the earthquake and mortality, suggesting effects were limited to a single-year impact. Limitations include the lack of individual-level data on comorbidities and evacuation status, and the analysis of p-values was exploratory.
