PLOS ONE · 15 authors, 7 centres
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This study analyzed under-five and neonatal mortality trends in Iran from 2010 to 2017 and projected future achievement of Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 (SDG 3.2) to 2030. It found Iran has achieved the national SDG target for both mortality rates, but provincial inequalities persist, with current trends indicating some provinces will not meet the target by 2030.
The study used an Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging with Gaussian Process Regression and Spatio-temporal models to estimate national and subnational under-five mortality rate (U5MR) and neonatal mortality rate (NMR) in Iran for 2010–2017, using data from the Death Registration System, censuses, and a demographic health survey. Scenario-based projections to 2030 were calculated using the average Annual Rate of Reduction. However, significant provincial inequality exists, with NMR ranging from 5.2 to 16.2. Seventeen provinces have not yet fulfilled the SDG target for NMR, and current trends suggest some will not reach it by 2030. The study concludes that focused health policies are needed to reduce these inequalities to ensure all provinces achieve SDG 3.2.
