PLOS ONE · 13 authors, 12 centres
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This study analyzed Iranian STEPS survey data to estimate and project national and subnational trends in the 10- and 30-year risk of incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) from 2000 to 2030. The central result is that CVD risk increased from 2000 to 2016 and is projected to continue rising through 2030 without further risk factor modification, with notable variations by sex, age, and region.
Risks were calculated using the Framingham, Globorisk, and WHO models, and trends were analyzed from 2000 and projected to 2030. The age-standardized Framingham 10-year CVD risk is projected to increase by 32.2% in females and 19% in males from 2000 to 2030. CVD risk was higher in urban areas and varied geographically, with northern provinces showing the greatest risk. Limitations include challenges with non-consecutive survey implementation and data constraints, which were addressed with modeling strategies. The findings suggest a need for targeted interventions in high-risk subpopulations to address the rising CVD burden in Iran.
